Separatists Are At Your Door And They've Got a Pen! Post No. 18

I have resisted writing this post for months, hoping that the subject would die a natural and boring death. But ignoring the drumbeat of Alberta separatists is getting harder. There may be relatively few people beating on those drums, but they're big, noisy drums being beaten by energetic people.

Thursday the premier of British Columbia, David Eby reacted to a report of Alberta separatists who claimed to have had a meeting with American "officials" regarding separation plans. Premier Eby said that to "go to a foreign country and to ask for assistance in breaking up Canada, there's an old-fashioned word for that, and that word is treason." Whether such a meeting ever happened, who the U.S. officials were and what the meeting accomplished is moot - we assume it must have been a big deal because Premier Eby is annoyed. I think what he really needs is a dictionary though, not an arrest warrant and gallows.

WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?

The question that is important is not whether we have traitors in our midst, it is why is this subject taking up so much space in the public square? Why do we hear from separatists almost daily? To quote Andrew (loyal blog reader and contributor) "Giving disproportionate attention to a minority position - especially one with extreme constitutional, economic and social risks - can itself marginalize the millions who do not support separation." More on these risks below, but let's not miss the point: by giving separatists this much attention, the interests of the majority of Albertans are pushed to the side, diminished and endangered.

There are separatist movements elsewhere in the world (Spain, India, Africa and Asia, not to mention Scotland) and elsewhere in Canada, some peaceful, some violent. Why are there separatists in Alberta?

A Globe and Mail opinion piece this summer noted, and my friend Bob pointed out to me this week, that there is at least one interesting distinction between Alberta separatists and other separatist movements. Where most separatist grievances tend to be religious or cultural or linguistic, or a mixture of all 3, Alberta's discontent seems to be financial. Alberta, the argument goes, contributes way more to the federation than it receives. Even if you accept the premise (I don't) this argument ignores some inconvenient facts: Albertans have a among the highest average incomes in the country, a lower cost of living than almost anywhere outside of the Maritimes, relatively low taxes and less government debt, per person, than most other Canadians. Alberta is home to somewhere just north of 95% of the country's oil reserves (this counts the oilsands, but we have the largest share of conventional reserves too), surely a stroke of incredibly good geological luck. We ought to be relatively well-off, and we are. We are apparently not as well off as we could be, or should be, though.

HOW MANY ARE THERE ANYWAY?

Getting a handle on just how many separatists there are is a tricky business. It depends on which poll you are reading, and what questions were asked. But a 2020 University of Alberta poll found 29% of Albertans answered yes to the question "Should Alberta separate from Canada and form an independent country?" About 27% of those who answered yes were either urban or suburban dwellers. Rural Albertans polled were 44% in favour of separation. There are fewer rural Alberta residents, so the overall support came out to 29%, but clearly support is much stronger in rural Alberta than elsewhere. Why is that?

In December 2025 a poll by Pollara Strategic Insights found that 19% of polled Albertans agreed with the same statement, considerably lower. Their conclusion was that in western Canada "support for separatism remains on the fringes." But 19% is not nothing.

LET'S TAKE A PEEK INTO THE ABYSS

The problem with simple polling questions is that they ignore the consequences and costs of separation. What does it cost to create a national police force? A national postal system? Border controls or national defense? Air traffic control systems? Financial and industry regulators? A national currency and banking payments system? How exactly would a landlocked Alberta get oil to ports for shipment to our many international customers? This not to say these challenges are insurmountable, only that they are being carefully ignored in the analysis of the costs and benefits of separation. Most economic analyses I have found agree that Alberta would be worse off economically as an independent state, and for a long time. Brexit is a good study of the law of unintended consequences when applied to major political and economic upheaval. Brexit costs and impacts were grossly underestimated, or deliberately misrepresented, or both. The economic expectations of separatist supporters are similarly delusional. Go ahead and make your case, but don't base your argument on implausible - if not hilarious - economic projections.

ROCK, MEET HARD PLACE

Alberta Premier Smith is in a tight spot: Albertans do not generally support separation from Canada, but a large proportion of those that do support it are members of her own governing party. To maintain the support of her party she is forced to defend, but not support, a position that most Albertans disagree with. Not a recipe for electoral success. Sucks to be you, particularly since you were elected to represent all of us, not just those you run into at your constituency meetings. Her separatist supporters think she's not doing enough and the rest think she's doing way too much to support the cause.

In 2023, to placate the separatist voices in its caucus, the Alberta government polled Albertans on their support for withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan. For 21 months the government refused to release the results of a publicly funded study of the public, to the public. When the results of the study were finally wrangled from the clenched fists of our government, we learned that 10% of Albertans supported the idea. 10%! The other 90% of respondents were opposed, undecided or had other suggestions. This when a study commissioned by the Province and released prior to the poll said that Alberta was entitled to 53% of all the money held by the CPP, an absurd claim. No wonder the Government fought to keep the results secret! While this debacle was going on the Premier Smith was toying with other separatist dreams: a provincial police force, provincial control over immigration, taking over appointment of federal judges, running these concepts up the flagpole so that her supporters, at least, could salute.

YES OR NO

There are at least two referendum questions on separation out there right now being circulated for signatures. They are deceptively simple questions that attempt to gauge support for an enormously complicated political and economic question, to be answered "yes" or "no." How do we resist the temptation to look for simple answers to complex questions? Can the Canadian federation be improved? Of course it can. Has Alberta been cheated by the rest of Canada over the past 159 years? Call me unconvinced - our economic strength tells a different story.

A final word of advice to Premier Eby: labelling people you disagree with, as traitors or deplorables or fanatics or ultra right wing, or whatever, is NEVER helpful. It is the political equivalent of giving the opposing team something to pin up on their dressing room bulletin board to motivate them in the upcoming game. If the supposed U.S. meetings happened, they were an insignificant waste of time, not treasonous, OK? You're just not helping.